AI Market Watch · The money loop · Deal

AMD and OpenAI: paid in AMD's own stock

OpenAI didn't pay cash for AMD's chips, and AMD didn't sell them for cash either. AMD handed OpenAI a warrant over its own stock, timed to the chips OpenAI actually buys and the share price AMD actually reaches. Here's the mechanism, in the order it happened, and where it stands today.

Data checked to 3 November 2026

The mechanism

Strip away the gigawatts and this is a four-step loop, and it is designed to repeat.

  1. 1

    OpenAI commits to buy chips

    On 5 October 2025, OpenAI signed a binding agreement for the first 1 gigawatt of AMD’s Instinct MI450 chips, due in the second half of 2026. It also agreed to a roadmap of up to 6 gigawatts over several years — a target built into the warrant, not a purchase order.

  2. 2

    AMD pays with a warrant, not cash

    Alongside the chip agreement, AMD issued OpenAI a warrant for up to 160m AMD shares at $0.01 each. It is worth nothing until it vests, and it vests only as chips are delivered and AMD’s own share price climbs.

  3. 3

    The market re-rates AMD

    Investors priced in both the implied chip revenue and OpenAI’s new stake in AMD’s success on the same day. AMD’s stock jumped 23.7% when the deal was announced, its best day in close to a decade.

  4. 4

    A higher share price moves the goalposts closer

    Each vesting tranche needs AMD’s stock to clear a target, rising to $600 for the final one. The rally itself brings the next target within reach — which is what the warrant was designed to do: give OpenAI a reason to keep buying.

Nothing here is accidental. AMD’s own filing calls the warrant “a material inducement” for OpenAI to keep placing orders.

What's confirmed, and what isn't

The long view

AMD's shares closed at $11.88 in the first week of 2018. They rode out the Covid crash, fell back to about $56 in the 2022 sell-off, and closed at $164.67 on the Friday before the deal, about 14 times where they started. The deal and what followed nearly quadrupled that in a year, to a record close of $649.42 in October 2026.11

Covid crashChatGPT launchesThe period charted below$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$70020192020202120222023202420252026$11.88$483.90 CovidChatGPTBelow$0$200$400$600$800’20’22’24’26$11.88$483.90
AMD weekly closing price since January 2018, adjusted for share splits.11

Timeline

The share price did most of the work, and the promises rode on it. The top line is AMD's closing price every trading day from August 2025; each number is an event in the timeline that follows. Underneath, on the same dates, is what the warrants promise. At AMD's October high the 320m promised shares were worth about $208bn. Not one has vested, and five-sixths of the gigawatts behind them are a roadmap, not an order.1,7,10,11

$100$200$300$400$500$600$700Sep ’25Nov ’25Jan ’26Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26$600: price needed for the final tranche$164.67: close before the deal1–345678910$483.90 $100$200$300$400$500$600$700Oct ’25Jan ’26Apr ’26Jul ’26Oct ’26$600: price needed for the final tranche$164.67: pre-deal1–345678910$483.90 Promised warrant shares, valued at each day's close0$50bn$100bn$150bn$200bn$250bn$192bn: what all 320m shares would be worth at the $600 targetShares vested so far: none$155bnOpenAI warrant: 160m sharesMeta warrant: 160m moreChips: gigawatts on the roadmap, and the gigawatts that are binding0GW6GW12GW12GW on the roadmap2GW bindingSep ’25Nov ’25Jan ’26Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26 Warrant shares, at each close0$100bn$200bn$300bn$192bn: all 320m at $600Shares vested so far: none$155bnOpenAIMetaChips: roadmap v binding0GW6GW12GW12GW on the roadmap2GW bindingOct ’25Jan ’26Apr ’26Jul ’26Oct ’26
AMD daily closing price. Numbers mark the events in the timeline below: hover over or tap one to see it, click to jump to it. An event on a weekend sits on the next trading day. Below it, on the same dates: the 320m shares AMD has promised OpenAI and Meta, valued at each day’s close, against the shares that have vested, which is none; and the 12 gigawatts of chips on the two roadmaps, against the 2 gigawatts that are binding.1,7,1011

  1. 5 Oct 2025

    The agreement is signed

    AMD and OpenAI sign a multi-year supply agreement. OpenAI’s only binding commitment is the initial 1 gigawatt of MI450 chips, due in the second half of 2026. Concurrently, AMD issues OpenAI a warrant for up to 160m shares at $0.01 each, exercisable until October 2030.1

  2. 6 Oct 2025

    AMD $164.67 → $203.71, +23.7%

    The market reacts

    AMD’s stock closes up 23.7% at $203.71, having traded as high as $226.71 in the morning — its best day since 2016. The close adds $63.36bn to AMD’s market value, taking it to $330.6bn.2,3,11

  3. 6 Oct 2025

    Analysts call it circular

    “When you see the money going in a circle, it raises some flags,” Wolfe Research’s Chris Caso says on CNBC the same morning, drawing a parallel with the vendor financing of the dot-com era. He contrasts it with Nvidia’s $30bn stake in OpenAI weeks earlier, which was paid in cash.4

  4. 7 Oct 2025

    Wall Street does the maths

    UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri notes the final tranche needs AMD’s market cap near $1tn to vest, worth about $100bn to OpenAI if it held every share to the end. His base case is different: that OpenAI sells AMD stock along the way to help pay its bill, calling it “a scheme for AMD to finance this customer’s purchases.”5

  5. 5 Nov 2025

    AMD discloses how it will book the warrant

    AMD’s 10-Q says it will treat the warrant as a liability, with its value recognised as a reduction to AMD’s own revenue as qualifying chip sales occur — not a payment to OpenAI, and not anything recorded on OpenAI’s books, which aren’t public.6

  6. 24 Feb 2026

    AMD +8.8%

    Meta gets the same deal

    AMD signs a mirror agreement with Meta for up to $60bn of chips over five years: an identical 160m-share, $0.01 warrant, the same 1GW/6GW structure, and the same $600 final target. AMD closes up 8.8% at $213.84.7,8,11

  7. 6 May 2026

    Still nothing vested

    AMD’s 10-Q for the quarter to 28 March 2026 confirms that no shares under either warrant have vested or become exercisable, and that neither warrant has had any impact on its financial statements.9

  8. 5 Aug 2026

    Same again

    AMD’s next 10-Q, for the quarter to 27 June 2026, repeats the same line: nothing vested. The 1 gigawatt of MI450 chips that would trigger the first tranche is still a second-half-of-2026 delivery.10

  9. 6 Oct 2026

    AMD high $658.52

    The stock passes $600, once

    On the deal’s first anniversary, AMD trades as high as $658.52 intraday, above the price needed for the final tranche, before closing lower at $649.42. Neither company has said whether the disclosed “stock performance thresholds” need more than a single trade above the line.11

  10. 3 Nov 2026

    AMD $483.90, today

    Where it stands today

    AMD closes at $483.90, 27% below that October high. The first 1 gigawatt of MI450 chips, the delivery that would trigger the first vesting, has still not been confirmed as shipped.11

Why it matters for the loop

In the money loop, this deal shows as a single $96bn ribbon from AMD to OpenAI: the value of all 160m shares if the warrant fully vests at $600. That number has never been paid, and may never be. What's real so far is the thing it bought on day one: a 24% jump in AMD's own stock, before a single chip shipped. Nvidia's $30bn stake in OpenAI, agreed weeks earlier, was cash. AMD's was equity it hadn't yet earned the right to issue, which is why analysts reached for the same word used throughout the AI build-out: circular.4,12

Sources

  1. AMD (SEC filing): Form 8-K: warrant issued to OpenAI (6 October 2025)
  2. MarketWatch: AMD's stock soars to its best day in a year (6 October 2025)
  3. Reuters: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, shares surge over 34% (6 October 2025)
  4. CNBC: Another mark-moving AI chip deal: reason to buy, or just more 'money going in a circle'? (6 October 2025)
  5. TechCrunch: Wall Street analysts explain how AMD's own stock will pay for OpenAI's billions in chip purchases (7 October 2025)
  6. AMD (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 September 2025: warrant accounting policy (5 November 2025)
  7. AMD (SEC filing): Form 8-K: warrant issued to Meta (24 February 2026)
  8. Reuters: AMD clinches second mega chip supply deal, this time with Meta (24 February 2026)
  9. AMD (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 March 2026: no warrant shares vested (6 May 2026)
  10. AMD (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 (5 August 2026)
  11. Yahoo Finance: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) stock historical prices (3 November 2026)
  12. Bloomberg: AI circular deals: how Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia keep paying each other (1 October 2026)

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