The mechanism
The filings tell one chain of events. Each step comes from SpaceX's prospectus, its 10-Q or the 8-Ks that followed. Where they say why something happened, we quote them. Where they don't, we don't guess.1,2
1
Buy Twitter for about $44bn
Twitter agreed to be bought at $54.20 a share in April 2022, and the deal closed in October. At the end of 2024 its new owner, X, still owed $12.6bn in term loans and bridge facilities.
2
Advertising revenue falls
Twitter earned $4.5bn from advertising in 2021. X earned $2.3bn in 2023 and $1.7bn in 2024.
3
Merge it into xAI, then SpaceX
X joined xAI in March 2025, and xAI joined SpaceX in February 2026. The debt came with them: $22.0bn at the end of 2025, of which $12.5bn was X’s loans and $5.0bn xAI’s.
4
Refinance before the IPO
A $20bn bridge loan repaid $18.9bn of X and xAI debt in March, including a $1.2bn prepayment penalty. A $25bn bond issue repaid the bridge in June. The IPO added $85.7bn of equity, and total debt stood at $38.0bn in September.
The prospectus on the fall in advertising: “The decrease in advertising revenue was due to the loss of advertising partners for X.” It doesn’t say why the partners left.
What's confirmed, and what isn't
Nobody sold in the IPOIn the filings
The prospectus says "We are offering 555,555,555 shares", and has no section for selling stockholders. The 10-Q says SpaceX "issued and sold" 638.9m shares, with the over-allotment, for net proceeds of $85.7bn. Every share was new.1,2
The price was $135In the filings
That's $75bn for the base offering. The stock closed its first day at $160.95, and closed at $141.31 on 3 November.1,7
The IPO didn't repay Twitter's debtIn the filings
The X and xAI loans were repaid in March, from a bridge loan. The bridge was repaid in June from $25bn of bonds. The prospectus had said IPO proceeds would go to the bridge, but the bonds came first.1,3
Debt is higher now, not lowerIn the filings
Total debt was $22.0bn at the end of 2025 and $38.0bn on 30 September. The bonds replaced the loans, and "other financings" grew from $4.6bn to $13.0bn.1,2
X's advertising roughly halvedIn the filings
$4.5bn in 2021 for Twitter, $2.3bn in 2023 for X. The two figures come from different filings, so the comparison isn't exact.1,9
Who has sold since
We haven't established this. See below.
The debt that moved
SpaceX's debt note at the end of 2025 sets out what was inherited, and its September 10-Q shows what replaced it. X's two bank loans were $12.5bn, and xAI's loans and notes were $5.0bn. Both were repaid in March 2026.1,2
- X's bank loans, end of 2025
- $12.5bn
- $6.5bn and $6.0bn, repaid in March
- xAI's debt, end of 2025
- $5.0bn
- two loans and 12.5% notes
- Total debt, 30 Sep 2026
- $38.0bn
- from $22.0bn at the end of 2025
| Principal, $m | 31 Dec 2025 | 30 Sep 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| X term loan B-1 | 6,504 | – | Principal was $6,571m at the end of 2024. |
| X term loan B-3 | 5,966 | – | The same $5,966m was listed as bridge credit facilities at the end of 2024. |
| xAI term loans | 1,990 | – | A fixed-rate and a floating-rate loan, $995m each. |
| xAI 12.5% secured notes | 3,000 | – | |
| X 2027 and 2030 notes | 27 | 27 | Legacy Twitter bonds, still outstanding. |
| SpaceX senior notes | – | 25,000 | Issued in June 2026 in five tranches, from 5.35% to 6.65%. |
| Other financings | 4,562 | 12,979 | Obligations on AI infrastructure assets recorded as failed sale-leasebacks. |
| Total debt | 22,049 | 38,0061,2 | Excludes finance leases of $1,237m and $983m |
The 12.5% notes were replaced by bonds paying 5.35% to 6.65%. But refinancing didn't reduce the total. The "other financings" line, which the filings describe as obligations on AI infrastructure assets that were sold and leased back but still sit on SpaceX's balance sheet, has nearly tripled since December.1,2
Advertising, before and after
Twitter's last annual report as a public company shows advertising services revenue of $4.5bn. X's advertising revenue in SpaceX's prospectus is lower in every year shown. The company attributes the 2024 fall to the loss of advertising partners. Its 2025 figure was a little higher, but for the first nine months of 2026 it was 6% lower than a year earlier. The September quarter was 19% higher.1,2,9
That is revenue, not profit, and the filings don't say what share of the fall followed any particular decision. What they do show is the bill that came with it: the AI segment, which holds X and xAI, lost $6.4bn from operations in 2025 on $3.2bn of revenue, and spent $12.7bn on capital equipment. In the first quarter of 2026 it lost $2.5bn on $818m of revenue.1
What we couldn't establish
The IPO itself was all new shares, so nobody cashed out in it. That doesn't settle whether existing investors have sold since, and we haven't found evidence either way. The prospectus describes a 180-day lock-up, which from 12 June runs to about 9 December. SEC records show a September Form 4 from a director linked to Valor Equity Partners, reporting that 42.8m Class A shares were disposed of under transaction code "J", which isn't an open-market sale. We haven't established what it was.1,6
We also can't tie the surge in AI revenue to one customer. In the September 10-Q, revenue from AI solutions and infrastructure was $7.0bn, up from $0.4bn a year earlier. In June SpaceX said Anthropic had agreed to pay $1.25bn a month for compute. We haven't found a filing that links the two.1,2
The long view
SpaceX's shares have traded only since 12 June. They were sold at $135, closed its first day 19% higher, and peaked four days later at $211.39. Since then they have fallen by a third. The line is its closing price every trading day since 12 June, and each number is an event in the timeline that follows.7
Timeline
-
25 Apr 2022
Twitter agrees to be bought
Twitter signs a deal to be acquired by an entity owned by Elon Musk for $54.20 a share in cash, “a transaction valued at approximately $44 billion”.8
-
Oct 2022
The acquisition closes
SpaceX’s prospectus dates the acquisition of Twitter by X Holdings to October 2022, and records the restructuring that followed, including workforce cuts and early lease terminations.1
-
2023
Advertising halves, and the Twitter brand is impaired
X’s advertising revenue is $2.3bn, against Twitter’s $4.5bn in 2021. In July Twitter is renamed X, and the prospectus says its AI segment’s impairment includes “a one-time impairment of the Twitter brand”. The group’s total impairment that year was $3.8bn.1,9
-
2024
Advertising falls by a further $595m
Advertising revenue falls to $1.7bn. The prospectus attributes the fall to “the loss of advertising partners for X”. At the end of 2024 X owes $12.6bn on its term loan and bridge facilities.1
-
28 Mar 2025
X joins xAI
xAI acquires X Holdings. The prospectus treats the two as under common control, so SpaceX’s accounts are recast to include both for every year shown.1
-
31 Dec 2025
$22.0bn of debt, and a $6.4bn operating loss in AI
Total debt is $22.0bn. For 2025 the AI segment, made up of X and xAI, has revenue of $3.2bn, a loss from operations of $6.4bn and capital spending of $12.7bn.1
-
2 Feb 2026
xAI joins SpaceX
SpaceX acquires xAI, and with it X. The prospectus calls the AI segment “newly acquired”.1
-
Mar 2026
A $20bn bridge loan pays off the X and xAI debt
SpaceX signs an unsecured $20bn bridge loan with Goldman Sachs as agent. It is used to repay the X and xAI term loans and xAI’s 12.5% notes: $18.9bn in all, including $1.2bn of prepayment penalty.1
-
May 2026
Anthropic signs for compute
SpaceX agrees to provide compute from its Colossus data centres to Anthropic, for $1.25bn a month “through May 2029”. Anthropic’s later filing puts the commitment at up to $120.5bn, and says either side can cancel on 90 days’ notice once initial periods end in early 2027.1,10
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12 Jun 2026
-
16 Jun 2026
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23 Jun 2026
-
5 Aug 2026
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14 Aug 2026
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22 Oct 2026
-
3 Nov 2026
SPCX $141.31, today
Where it stands today
The stock closes at $141.31, 4.7% above the IPO price and 33.2% below its June record.7
Why it matters for the loop
In the money loop, SpaceX is both a borrower and a supplier. It carries $38.0bn of debt, and after the IPO, $85.7bn of new equity. It has issued stock at an implied $60bn to buy Cursor, and Nvidia has put up to $2bn into a vehicle that buys chips for xAI. And it is one of the capacity suppliers behind Anthropic, whose filing shows a commitment of up to $120.5bn that either side can cancel on 90 days' notice from early 2027. How much of SpaceX's AI revenue rests on that contract isn't yet visible in its filings.2,5,10
Sources
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SEC filing): Final prospectus (Form 424B4) for the initial public offering (12 June 2026)
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (22 October 2026)
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SEC filing): Form 8-K: pricing of $25bn of senior notes, to repay the bridge loan in full (23 June 2026)
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SEC filing): Form 8-K: results for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (4 August 2026)
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SEC filing): Form 8-K: completion of the Cursor acquisition (14 August 2026)
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SEC filing): Form 4 for a director affiliated with Valor Equity Partners, period 11 September 2026 (15 September 2026)
- Yahoo Finance: Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) historical prices (3 November 2026)
- Twitter, Inc. (SEC filing): Press release: Twitter to be acquired by Elon Musk for $54.20 per share, a transaction valued at about $44bn (25 April 2022)
- Twitter, Inc. (SEC filing): Form 10-K for 2021: advertising services revenue of $4.51bn (16 February 2022)
- Anthropic, PBC (SEC filing): Form S-1/A, Amendment No. 1 (2 November 2026)