Totals for every deal in the diagram. Click a total to show only that kind; hover over or tap a company to see its share.
How to read it
Each arc around the edge is a company. Each ribbon is a deal, running from the company that pays or promises to the one that receives, and its width is the dollar amount. Hover over or tap a company to see only its deals.
How the loop works
Nvidia funds its own customers
Nvidia has put $30bn into OpenAI, committed up to $10bn to Anthropic, and bought $2bn stakes in both CoreWeave and Nebius.1,2,3 It invested up to $2bn in the vehicle buying its chips for xAI's Colossus 2.4 Every one of them is a big buyer of Nvidia hardware. Nvidia also stands behind demand for that hardware. It has $36bn of six-year commitments to buy back capacity from AI-cloud partners, and it guarantees up to $105bn of OpenAI's lease payments in Ohio. In return, that campus will run only Nvidia hardware.19,20
AMD pays in its own shares
OpenAI's stake in AMD is really a warrant that AMD issued to it. OpenAI can buy up to 160m AMD shares at one cent each, and Meta got the same deal in February. The shares vest only as each company buys up to 6GW of AMD chips and AMD's share price hits targets rising to $600.5,6 At $600 each warrant would be worth about $96bn, so in effect AMD's biggest customers would be paid in AMD stock for buying AMD chips. None had vested by June.7 AMD has also agreed to take up to $5bn of future equity in Anthropic alongside a 2GW chip deal.8
Clouds fund the labs that rent from them
Amazon put $50bn into OpenAI alongside a $100bn expansion of OpenAI's AWS contract.9 Amazon ($18bn) and Google (about $23bn) are Anthropic's two largest investors. Anthropic has committed at least $110bn and $121.3bn back to them.10,12 Microsoft owns about 27% of OpenAI, and OpenAI has committed $250bn to Azure.8,11
The labs carry the biggest promises
OpenAI's priced compute contracts total about $720bn, against revenue running at close to $50bn a year.11 Anthropic's amended IPO filing shows $895.4bn of commitments. About $213.8bn of that can be cancelled or depends on conditions, such as a supplier finding financing.12 If the labs' revenue doesn't keep up, these commitments are where the loop breaks. The guarantees show who is standing behind them when it does.
What the widths mean
- Spending commitments are totals over the life of each contract, often five to ten years, not annual amounts.
- Guarantees are maximum exposures. They pay out only if someone defaults, and less if the asset can be re-let or sold.
- AMD's warrants are valued at the $600 share price needed for full vesting, which is the most they could be worth under the deal terms.
- The totals above the diagram add up the ribbons. They overlap, as when Amazon invests in OpenAI and OpenAI commits to spend on AWS, and they mix decade-long contracts with stakes already paid. Read them as how much is tied up in the loop, not cash that has changed hands.
- Deals with no published dollar value are left out. These include OpenAI's 10GW custom-chip deal with Broadcom and the 6GW AMD chip purchases themselves.
Deal by deal
Nvidia sells the chips, so it sits at the start of the loop. The other pages unpack the biggest contracts around it.
Nvidia
It sells the chips the build-out runs on, and it has become one of the biggest backers too. About $384bn announced since September 2025. $61.5bn confirmed as paid, and much of that comes back as orders for its own chips.
AMD and OpenAI
A warrant, not a wire transfer. AMD's stock did the heavy lifting on day one, and the chips it's meant to pay for haven't shipped yet.
Oracle and OpenAI
A reported contract Oracle's own filings never name turned a database company into a near-trillion-dollar AI story, then into a credit downgrade.
Anthropic
A record quarter, slower growth and a return to an operating loss, with about $895bn of compute commitments. Its summary leads with adjusted measures that leave out a $104bn net loss.
OpenAI
The customer behind most of these deals. What it has signed, what its investors have paid, and where the strain is showing in its partners' credit.
SpaceX, X and xAI
X's bank debt and xAI's borrowing ended up in a listed company, were refinanced before the IPO, and left total debt higher. Nobody sold in the offering.
Every flow in the diagram
| From | To | Kind | Amount | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | OpenAI | Equity and warrants | $30bn | $30bn in OpenAI's 2026 round. Announced.1 |
| Nvidia | Anthropic | Equity and warrants | $10bn | Up to $10bn committed in November 2025. Up to.2 |
| Nvidia | CoreWeave | Equity and warrants | $2bn | $2bn stake, January 2026. Completed.1 |
| Nvidia | Nebius | Equity and warrants | $2bn | $2bn for about 8.3%, March 2026. Completed.3 |
| Nvidia | xAI / SpaceX | Equity and warrants | $2bn | Up to $2bn in the vehicle buying Nvidia chips for Colossus 2. Reported.4 |
| AMD | OpenAI | Equity and warrants | $96bn | Warrant for up to 160m AMD shares at $0.01 each, vesting as OpenAI buys up to 6GW of AMD chips. Worth about $96bn if AMD reaches the final $600 share-price target. None vested by June. Conditional.5 |
| AMD | Meta | Equity and warrants | $96bn | The same deal for Meta: up to 160m shares for buying up to 6GW. None vested by June. Conditional.6 |
| AMD | Anthropic | Equity and warrants | $5bn | Up to $5bn of future equity alongside 2GW of AMD chips. Up to.8 |
| Microsoft | OpenAI | Equity and warrants | $13bn | $13bn committed, $11.9bn funded by June; about 27% ownership. Mostly funded.8 |
| Microsoft | Anthropic | Equity and warrants | $5bn | Up to $5bn committed in November 2025. Up to.2 |
| Amazon | OpenAI | Equity and warrants | $50bn | $50bn, alongside OpenAI's AWS expansion. Funded.9 |
| Amazon | Anthropic | Equity and warrants | $18bn | $18bn invested, with $15bn more available. Funded.10 |
| Alphabet | Anthropic | Equity and warrants | $23bn | About $23bn invested, with $20bn more tied to targets. Funded.10 |
| SoftBank | OpenAI | Equity and warrants | $30bn | $30bn committed for the 2026 round, $20bn funded by July. Mostly funded.8 |
| OpenAI | Oracle | Spending commitments | $300bn | About $300bn over five years from 2027. Oracle's filings never name OpenAI. Reported.11 |
| OpenAI | Microsoft | Spending commitments | $250bn | An incremental $250bn of Azure services. Contracted.11 |
| OpenAI | Amazon | Spending commitments | $138bn | $38bn, then $100bn more over eight years. Contracted.9 |
| OpenAI | CoreWeave | Spending commitments | $22.4bn | Up to $22.4bn across three contracts. Contracted.11 |
| Anthropic | Broadcom | Spending commitments | $161.2bn | About $161.2bn of five-year rack leases with Broadcom and its financing partners. Contracted.12 |
| Anthropic | Alphabet | Spending commitments | $121.3bn | At least $121.3bn of Google compute to 2033, payable whether used or not. Contracted.12 |
| Anthropic | xAI / SpaceX | Spending commitments | $120.5bn | Up to $120.5bn of Nvidia-powered compute; either side can cancel on 90 days' notice from 2027. Cancellable.12 |
| Anthropic | Amazon | Spending commitments | $110bn | At least $110bn of AWS to 2036. Contracted.12 |
| Anthropic | Microsoft | Spending commitments | $44.9bn | At least $44.9bn of Azure to 2033. Contracted.12 |
| Anthropic | Nscale | Spending commitments | $44.6bn | Up to $44.6bn, paid only as capacity is delivered. Up to.12 |
| Microsoft | Nscale | Spending commitments | $23bn | About $23bn for 200,000 GB300 GPUs. Contracted.13 |
| Microsoft | Nebius | Spending commitments | $19.4bn | About $17.4bn, up to $19.4bn. Up to.14 |
| Microsoft | IREN | Spending commitments | $9.7bn | $9.7bn through 2031. Contracted.15 |
| Meta | CoreWeave | Spending commitments | $35.2bn | Up to $14.2bn to 2031 plus about $21bn to 2032. Contracted.16 |
| Meta | Nebius | Spending commitments | $27bn | $12bn dedicated, plus up to $15bn of capacity Nebius can't sell elsewhere. Up to.17 |
| Nvidia | CoreWeave | Spending commitments | $6.3bn | Nvidia agreed to buy $6.3bn of CoreWeave's unsold capacity. Reported.18 |
| Nvidia | IREN | Spending commitments | $3.4bn | $3.4bn cloud contract. Contracted.15 |
| Nvidia | Other AI clouds | Spending commitments | $36bn | $36bn of six-year commitments to buy capacity from unnamed AI-cloud partners. Contracted.19 |
| Nvidia | OpenAI | Guarantees and backstops | $105bn | Guarantees up to $105bn of OpenAI's Ohio lease and power payments. From 2029.20 |
| Nvidia | Other AI clouds | Guarantees and backstops | $3.5bn | $3.5bn of land, power and shell guarantees for AI-cloud partners. In force.19 |
| Broadcom | Anthropic | Guarantees and backstops | $29bn | Backstops up to $29bn of Anthropic's rack leases with Apollo. In force.21 |
| Meta | Blue Owl | Guarantees and backstops | $28bn | Residual value guarantee on Hyperion, about $28bn (our split of Meta's $41.5bn total). Inferred split.22 |
| Meta | BlackRock | Guarantees and backstops | $13bn | Residual value guarantee on El Paso, about $13bn. In force.23 |
| Alphabet | Other AI clouds | Guarantees and backstops | $48bn | $48bn of backstops for data-centre landlords' obligations, with $27.7bn more agreed. In force.24 |
| Blue Owl | Meta | Project financing | $27bn | Hyperion: Blue Owl funds and $27.3bn of bonds build Meta's ~$27bn campus. Funded.25 |
| BlackRock | Meta | Project financing | $14bn | El Paso: ~$14bn campus, with $12.5bn of debt. Funded.23 |
| Bank syndicate | Oracle | Project financing | $18bn | Project Jupiter: ~$18bn of construction loans, some trading near 80 cents. Under pressure.26 |
| Blue Owl | Oracle | Project financing | $3bn | Project Jupiter: about $3bn of equity. Reported.27 |
| Apollo | Anthropic | Project financing | $35bn | AI XPV first tranche: $35bn of Broadcom racks leased to Anthropic. Funded.28 |
| Apollo | xAI / SpaceX | Project financing | $5.4bn | Valor Compute Infrastructure: $5.4bn of GPUs leased to xAI, $3.5bn financed by Apollo. Funded.29 |
Sources
- CNBC: Nebius stock pops 16% on Nvidia $2 billion investment announcement (11 March 2026)
- Leverage Shares: Who owns Anthropic? Amazon and Google's stakes in the S-1 (28 October 2026)
- Reuters: Nvidia to invest $2 billion in neocloud Nebius amid AI data center push (11 March 2026)
- PitchBook (citing Bloomberg): Nvidia adds xAI to its growing AI venture portfolio as part of $20B round (8 October 2025)
- AMD (SEC filing): Form 8-K: warrant issued to OpenAI (6 October 2025)
- AMD (SEC filing): Form 8-K: warrant issued to Meta (24 February 2026)
- AMD (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 (5 August 2026)
- cdelta: Investment ledger: the circular machine (second edition supplement) (31 October 2026)
- OpenAI (announcement): OpenAI and Amazon announce strategic partnership (27 February 2026)
- Investing.com (via Yahoo Finance): Anthropic relies on Google, Amazon and Microsoft for nearly half its revenue (26 October 2026)
- Zan Digital: OpenAI compute commitments: $720B against $50B revenue (25 October 2026)
- Securities.io (summarising Anthropic's amended S-1): Anthropic reports $895.4 billion in compute and infrastructure commitments (2 November 2026)
- Introl: Microsoft's $60B neocloud bet (1 October 2026)
- SAVRN: The neocloud landscape (1 October 2026)
- BlockWest Research: Neocloud scorecard, Q2 2026: backlog, capex and debt at the GPU clouds (1 October 2026)
- CoreWeave (press release): CoreWeave and Meta announce $21 billion expanded AI infrastructure agreement (9 April 2026)
- Nebius (SEC filing): Form 6-K: commercial agreement with Meta, up to $27 billion (16 March 2026)
- Bloomberg: AI circular deals: how Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia keep paying each other (1 October 2026)
- StockTitan (NVIDIA Form 10-Q): NVIDIA quarterly report: AI cloud agreements and guarantees (26 August 2026)
- NVIDIA (SEC filing): Form 8-K: residual value guaranties with SB Energy, PORTS Technology Campus, Ohio (17 August 2026)
- R40: Broadcom's 10-Q already disclosed a $29B lease backstop (20 October 2026)
- TokenPost (summarising Meta's Q3 2026 10-Q): Meta puts maximum exposure to two data center ventures at $68.4 billion (30 October 2026)
- AI Tech Model: Meta data center financing: how the JVs work (20 August 2026)
- CCIR Monitor: Big Tech's $3.0 trillion in signed AI commitments (from the Q3 2026 10-Qs) (1 November 2026)
- Meta (press release): Meta announces joint venture with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital to develop Hyperion data center (21 October 2025)
- FinancialMarkets.com (citing The New York Times): Debt on Oracle's New Mexico AI campus has traded near 80 cents (23 October 2026)
- Reuters: Oracle, Blue Owl project delay sends ripples through AI financing (24 September 2026)
- Colocation Scout: Broadcom discloses five-year lease backstop for AI infrastructure financing (12 September 2026)
- Apollo (press release): Apollo backs $5.4 billion Valor and xAI data center compute infrastructure transaction with $3.5 billion capital solution (7 January 2026)