Anthropic: an IPO to be valued on what it adds back

The mechanism

Anthropic's filing describes a company whose commitments run years ahead of its revenue, with the suppliers it depends on helping to finance the gap. Each step is in the S-1/A. The last is where the valuation argument lies.

What was said, and what the filing says

Some of what's circulating about this IPO is right, some is close, and some isn't in the filing. Each claim below is checked against the S-1/A.

• Financing costs could hurt suppliersIn the filings

  This is a risk factor in the 2 November amendment, quoted above. It says capacity "may be delayed, repriced, reduced, or not delivered". It is a warning, and it doesn't say this is happening.¹

• And hurt customersIn the filings

  The filing says its customers, "particularly early-stage and high-growth companies", may depend on venture capital and "may reduce or cease spending with us" if "their access to capital becomes more costly". That wording was already in the 26 October S-1.^1,2

• A sharp change in the quarterIn the filings

  Revenue still hit a record. What changed is the pace and the margin: growth slowed from 144% to 47%, and the operating result went from a $974m profit to a $567m loss. Reuters's headline put it as growth that "slows".^1,10

• A multiple on the best quarterReported

  The filing sets no valuation: the price range is blank. The reported target is $1.5tn to $1.6tn, down from about $2tn, and Anthropic hasn't settled on one. The report is the Wall Street Journal's, as relayed by the New York Post.^1,9

• The SpaceX compute dealIn the filings

  SpaceX's June prospectus put it at $1.25bn a month. Anthropic's filing puts it at up to $120.5bn, and says either side can cancel on 90 days' notice once initial periods end in early 2027.^1,13

Revenue up 45-fold, and the compute bill with it

Anthropic's quarterly results from the S-1/A. Revenue has grown every quarter, and through mid-2026 it grew faster than compute. In the June quarter it earned its only operating profit. In the September quarter compute rose 77% against revenue growth of 47%, and the filing says why: $5.0bn of short-term compute, which "currently costs significantly more than comparable compute procured under our multi-year commitments", plus a cut of about $600m from price reductions on new models and contractual discounts.¹

Revenue growth, Q2 to Q3

+47%

after +144% in Q2 and +132% in Q1

Compute as a share of revenue

58%

48% in Q2 2026

Revenue per $1 of compute

$1.72

$2.08 in Q2 2026

Calculated from the quarterly table in the filing. The filing itself says the quarter "reduced revenue per dollar of compute compared to the preceding quarter".

Which number to divide by

Anthropic's summary financial data puts three measures beside the GAAP figures: Run-Rate Revenue, Adjusted Operating Income and Adjusted Net Income. The filing defines each one and reconciles it to the GAAP number, as the rules require. Adjusted net income starts from net loss and adds back stock-based compensation, non-cash charitable contributions, the 2025 Bartz settlement, the change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs, and the change in fair value of other mark-to-market instruments.¹

The gap between the two sets of numbers is the size of the argument.

On the operating line the gap is smaller but still turns a loss into a profit. Over the nine months the operating margin was −4% on GAAP and +12% adjusted. For 2025 it was −176% and −106%. The filing says the fair-value charges are "primarily driven by" rises in the value of the convertible notes "resulting from increases in our enterprise valuation". The largest, $59.6bn, came in the June quarter, "in connection with our Series H financing".¹

Excluding these items is common practice, and the filing reconciles every one. But it means the GAAP loss says little about how the business is performing, and the adjusted profit depends on which costs a reader accepts as recurring. Run-Rate Revenue works differently: it takes the last 28 days of usage fees, multiplies by 13, and adds monthly subscriptions times 12. The amendment leaves the run-rate figure as of 31 October blank.¹

What a price would mean on each basis

The filing sets no price, so these are not forecasts. They show what each reported or announced valuation would be, divided by what the filing reports, annualised by multiplying one quarter by four. The valuation points are the Series H price, the range reported on 3 November, and the earlier ambition it replaces.^7,9

At a fixed valuation, rising revenue lowers the revenue multiple, which is why a strong quarter helps the case for a high price. But the multiple depends heavily on which line is used. At $1.5tn it is 22 times annualised revenue and 150 times annualised adjusted operating income, and it can't be measured at all on the GAAP operating result, which was a loss. The September quarter moved the operating margin down on both bases: adjusted from 19% to 15%, GAAP from a profit to a loss.¹

What it owes, and what it can pay with

Anthropic's contractual commitments come to about $895.4bn. The contractual-obligations table in the filing is smaller ($320bn), because the $895.4bn also counts about $451bn of leases that haven't started, $100bn of commitments made after 30 September, and short-term contracts. Arrangements with no fixed dollar amount are left out of both, and the filing estimates them at $150bn to $175bn. Some of the commitments are conditional.¹

Aggregate commitments

$895.4bn

substantially all compute and infrastructure

Conditional or cancellable

$213.8bn

"exercisable termination rights or contingent conditions"

Due in the next 12 months

$69.8bn

against $95.6bn cash and $36.3bn short-term investments

The conditions the filing gives include "the counterparty's ability to secure financing", the same risk it warns of elsewhere. The named commitments below come from its description of each contract. They overlap with the total in ways the filing doesn't break out, so they don't add up to it.¹

1. Broadcom $161.2bn¹ TPU equipment leases. Rent over the life of the leases, excluding interest.
2. Google $121.3bn¹ Apr 2026 to Jul 2033. A minimum, "regardless of actual usage". A further $125bn to $150bn of TPU compute is estimated but sits outside the table.
3. SpaceXAI $120.5bn¹ Into 2029. "Up to", at about $3.1bn a month once all capacity is delivered, expected in December 2026. Cancellable on 90 days' notice after initial periods ending January and March 2027.
4. Amazon $110bn¹ May 2026 to Apr 2036. A minimum, "regardless of actual usage".
5. Microsoft $44.9bn¹ Nov 2026 to Jun 2033. A minimum, "regardless of actual usage".
6. Nscale $44.6bn¹ Into 2033. "Up to".
7. Lambda $41.3bn¹ Into 2034. Aggregate spend over the term.

Two further points from the filing. It has drawn nothing on its $15bn credit facility. And a "portion" of the build-out relies on credit support, and in one case it says the support comes from "a third party that is also a competitor".¹

How the valuation got here

Each priced round roughly doubled or tripled the one before. The filing sold $15.0bn of Series G-2 shares in the second quarter at the Series G price of $259.14, while Series H priced at $589.01. Anthropic's Series H announcement says that round included "$15 billion of previously committed investments from hyperscalers". The filing doesn't say whether the two are the same money.^1,7

1. Series E $61.5bn⁴ 3 Mar 2025. $3.5bn raised.
2. Series F $183bn⁵ 2 Sep 2025. $13bn raised.
3. Series G $380bn^1,6 12 Feb 2026. $30bn raised, at $259.14 a share in the filing.
4. Series H $965bn^1,7 28 May 2026. $65bn raised, at $589.01 a share in the filing.
5. Reported IPO view $1.5tn to $1.6tn^1,9 3 Nov 2026. Reported as more realistic than an earlier ambition of about $2tn. Anthropic hasn't set a target, and its filing leaves the price range blank.

The valuation is itself a driver of the accounts: $130.5bn of convertible notes sit on the balance sheet, and every rise in valuation raises their carrying value and the GAAP loss.¹

Timeline

There's no share price for Anthropic yet, as it isn't listed. The timeline is the funding rounds, the filings and the reaction to them.

1. 1

   3 Mar 2025

   $61.5bn valuation

   Series E

   Anthropic raises $3.5bn at a $61.5bn post-money valuation.⁴

2. 2

   2 Sep 2025

   $183bn valuation

   Series F

   $13bn at $183bn post-money, led by ICONIQ. The valuation has tripled in six months.⁵

3. 3

   18 Nov 2025

   Nvidia and Microsoft step in

   Nvidia commits “up to” $10bn and Microsoft “up to” $5bn, and Anthropic agrees to buy $30bn of Azure compute and up to a gigawatt of Nvidia systems.⁸

4. 4

   12 Feb 2026

   $380bn valuation

   Series G

   $30bn at $380bn post-money, led by GIC and Coatue. The filing records the shares at $259.14 each.^1,6

5. 5

   28 May 2026

   $965bn valuation

   Series H

   $65bn at $965bn post-money, including $15bn of previously committed hyperscaler investment, $5bn of it from Amazon. The filing records the shares at $589.01 each, 2.3 times the Series G price less than four months earlier.^1,7

6. 6

   1 Jun 2026

   Draft registration submitted

   EDGAR lists a draft registration statement from Anthropic on 1 June: a confidential submission to the SEC, ahead of the public filing.³

7. 7

   26 Oct 2026

   Public S-1

   Anthropic files its S-1 publicly, to list as “ANT” on the Nasdaq Global Select Market.²

8. 8

   2 Nov 2026

   Amended S-1: third-quarter numbers

   The amendment adds the September quarter: revenue of $17.0bn, an operating loss of $0.6bn, and compute and infrastructure costs of $9.9bn. It puts aggregate commitments at about $895.4bn.^1,10

9. 9

   3 Nov 2026

   Reported

   The valuation view comes down

   The New York Post, citing the Wall Street Journal, reports that a valuation of roughly $1.5tn to $1.6tn would be more realistic than $2tn. Fortune quotes an analyst on the cost of debt weighing on margins, and TechCrunch writes that the build-out could slow “if bond markets get skittish”.^9,11,12

Why it matters for the loop

In the money loop, Anthropic is a buyer: of Google's, Amazon's, Microsoft's and Broadcom's capacity, of SpaceX's, and of chips from Nvidia and AMD. Several of those suppliers are also its investors and lenders. Its filing is the clearest statement yet that the loop depends on financing continuing to flow to the companies that build the capacity. If it becomes dearer for them, the filing says Anthropic could receive its compute late or at a different price. And if it becomes dearer for Anthropic's own customers, the revenue that pays for all this slows. SpaceX, which now rents Anthropic compute worth up to $120.5bn, is the other side of that contract.¹

Sources

1. Anthropic, PBC (SEC filing): Form S-1/A, Amendment No. 1 (2 November 2026)
2. Anthropic, PBC (SEC filing): Form S-1 (26 October 2026)
3. Anthropic, PBC (SEC filings): Filing list, including the draft registration statement submitted in June 2026 (2 November 2026)
4. Anthropic (announcement): Anthropic raises Series E at $61.5B valuation (3 March 2025)
5. Anthropic (announcement): Anthropic raises $13B Series F at $183B valuation (2 September 2025)
6. Anthropic (announcement): Anthropic raises $30 billion Series G at $380 billion post-money valuation (12 February 2026)
7. Anthropic (announcement): Anthropic raises $65B Series H at $965B valuation (28 May 2026)
8. Anthropic (announcement): Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic partnerships (18 November 2025)
9. New York Post (citing the Wall Street Journal): Anthropic investors are getting skittish over sky-high valuation: report (3 November 2026)
10. Reuters (via StreetInsider): Anthropic revenue growth slows, compute financing risks mount ahead of IPO (2 November 2026)
11. Fortune: Anthropic's third quarter results mean IPO math and history are not on its side, analysts say (3 November 2026)
12. TechCrunch: Anthropic is still grappling with the economics of compute (3 November 2026)
13. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SEC filing): Final prospectus (Form 424B4) for the initial public offering (12 June 2026)